The DC market has been on a downward trend, moving against fundamentals based on the new RPS. However due to the grandfathering of the old DC renewable portfolio standard (RPS) buyers are not obligated to pay over $300 per SREC for some of their obligations. We are seeing just that happen now, lower SREC payments. It is unknown to how much of a supply the buyers have covered at the upper, new, RPS, level vs the old.
The normal reaction, in a quickly dropping SREC market, of a SREC seller is to hold. We've witnessed this in the OH, PA, NJ and MD markets and in most cases (except for NJ due to they passed legislation to correct/re-tune the RPS) it does not work. Holding in this situation creates a potential glut of SRECs for the next energy year, the carry over of unsold SRECs, and will push pricing even lower. New SREC sellers are calculated in at a lower SREC price and will be willing to sell at the new lower levels.
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.