The spot SREC market has been trading between $130 and $140 during the past week. Without the potential passage of this bill, the SREC market would have most likely been trading below the $85 low experienced a month ago. The bill calls for significant increases in SREC purchases from energy providers, but not until the fall of 2014. Long-term SREC prices will be less volatile with upper limits reduced. SREC price caps are being reduced from the $600+ range to $339 and less starting in energy year 2014. The short term upward price movement due to bill passage should be limited due to the oversupply of SRECs this year and the next year. The oversupply will presumably be used for compliance in the fall of 2014.
Power producers, who are required by law to buy SRECs, will watch the pace of solar development over the next 6 months to determine if the market will be oversupplied once again. If developers throttle back to 20 mw /month or less the SREC market should stabilize and forward 3 year pricing should be in the upper $100s to low $200 range.
During Governor Chris Christies’ speech he commented on the expected closure of the Oyster Creek Nuclear plant, which is the countries oldest, in eight years. The expansion of solar along with the addition of “3 new natural gas fired power plants will be built in New Jersey in the next 5 years” should help keep power in New Jersey “cleaner and more affordable”.
Mark Incolllingo, a volunteer member of Haddonfield’s Sustainable NJ Green Team, asked the question in the following link to a video of a town hall meeting.
Here is a link to the video posted on the Star Ledger website on NJ.com:
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