Supply and Demand. This is the main driving factor in MD SREC pricing.
Currently there is 478 mw of solar installations registered in PJM-EIS, the website that creates SRECs. These facilities will generate an estimated 570,000 SRECs for the 2016 calendar year. Add in the unsold SRECs from 2014 and 2015 (around 100,000 SRECs) and we are looking at an oversupply of 230,000 or more SRECs after the buyers turn in their 2016 SREC purchases.
The 2017 vintage is oversupplied. The RPS requires approximately 615,000 SRECs to be turned in for 2017 compliance year. With the 230,000 plus SREC carry over from 2016 plus the current 478 mw of solar generating SRECs right now that demand is met and oversupplied again by approximately 115,000 SRECs. As the year goes along and more solar is installed the market become more and more oversupplied.
Build Rates: Maryland has been installing more and more solar year over year. In 2013 around 40 mw was installed, 2014 around 60 mw and in 2015 124 mw! Yes, in 2015 twice as much solar went on-line then 2014. If this trend continues, installing double the 2015 number, we could potentially see 248 mw installed this year. Is this build rate sustainable? Potentially yes, but that’s an aggressive amount to install. However, just this year MD has installed almost 100 mw’s and its only been 4 months. If the 2016 build rate does in fact double we could project a 400,000 SREC oversupply for 2017. If the build rate remains the same, 10 to 11 mw a month, an oversupply of 200,000 plus SRECs could happen.
Legislative variable: Will the current house bill HB116 http://tinyurl.com/zeklecq that just passed in the House and Senate fix the problem? The bill does call to increase the solar carve out. For 2017 the RPS for solar will be increased from 0.95% to 1.15% or increase the demand from 615,000 SREC to about 725,000 SRECs. This increase would soak up the oversupply of SRECs but not if the current build rate continues. The date in which the bill will reach the Governors desk has not been scheduled yet.
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.