After reaching a four year high price of $290.09 on June 13th New Jersey SREC prices have dropped $50 to the $240 level.
There are two major reasons why the uptrend has stalled and prices have corrected slightly:
Most New Jersey electricity compliance buyers have finished procuring their RY 2016 SRECs. Buyers needed to purchase and retire approximately 2,090,000 SRECs (They could use any SRECs generated between August of 2012 and May of 2016). In GATS there are 2,167,382 SRECs available which leaves about a 77,000 oversupply. There will be less than that available because some sellers hold their SRECs and some have been purchased for hedging purposes by other buyers. This leaves the RY 16 market almost “balanced”. This justifies last year’s uptrend and previous $290.09 high price. Now that they have finished buying for this year the buyers seem to be stepping back and taking their time. They now have over a year to buy for their next compliance.
The New Jersey BPU reported an increase in the amount of solar being installed. In July they released a report showing upward adjustments to the amount of solar installed last year along with a few completions of large scale grid connect projects. Since February the BPU has reported an additional 186 Mw installed which has also led to the price correction.
It is not expected that the market will drop quickly to levels seen in 2012 in the next year. The 2012 law throttled back the amount of large scale solar farms that can quickly oversupply an SREC market. Also, there has been a shift to more very small residential installations in the last few years and less medium size commercial installations. A surprise oversupply is unlikely however, we need to be on the lookout for a steady increase in supply. The BPU reports new solar installations monthly.
As for prices, sellers should not rely on steady uptrends like they saw in the 2013 – 2016 timeframe. Prices will more than likely swing like we have seen recently. We suggest to our sellers to sell if there is any short-term appreciation and if not, make sure that a periodic selling approach is taken to mitigate holding too many SRECs on a protracted down-trend.
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.