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Updated May 2026 | SB 252 Analysis + Market Methodology

Virginia's RPS and the GREC Carve-Out

On April 13, 2026, Governor Spanberger signed SB 252 - creating Virginia's first mandatory geothermal carve-out under the Renewable Portfolio Standard. Ground-source heat pump owners can now register, create, and sell Geothermal Renewable Energy Certificates (GRECs) through the PJM GATS tracking system. Flett Exchange handles registration to settlement.

Virginia GREC Market

Virginia's Clean Economy Act requires the state's two largest utilities to source a growing share of electricity from renewables. Dominion Energy Virginia (Phase II) must reach 29% by 2026, scaling to 100% by 2045. Appalachian Power (Phase I) follows a parallel schedule. Both utilities satisfy their obligation by procuring and retiring RECs through PJM GATS each compliance year.

SB 252 carved a dedicated lane for geothermal within that RPS framework. Starting with compliance year 2027, each utility must retire a specific percentage of geothermal RECs - not generic renewables - or pay a penalty. That mandate creates the demand that gives Virginia GRECs market value.

SB 252: What Changed

REC Type ACP Rate Note
General RPS RECs $45 / MWh Escalates 1%/yr after 2021
Small Solar/Wind (≤1 MW) $75 / MWh Escalates 1%/yr after 2021
Geothermal Heating & Cooling New - SB 252 $100 / MWh Highest dedicated ACP in VA RPS. Utility exempt if GRECs unavailable at or below ACP.
  • 1. Geothermal Carve-Out. Beginning with compliance year 2027, every Phase I and Phase II utility must retire a percentage of geothermal RECs as a share of all RPS RECs. The schedule: 0.50% in 2027; 0.75% in 2028; 1.00% in 2029 and thereafter.
  • 2. Quarterly RFP Obligation. Each utility must issue a quarterly RFP for geothermal RECs. Exchange responds to these RFPs on behalf of its registered customers.
  • 3. Explicit Water Heating Eligibility. Domestic hot water produced by the geothermal system counts toward GREC production. (Va. Code § 56-585.5 C 5)

RETROACTIVE CLAIMS: Systems installed from August 16, 2022 onward are eligible. Once GATS registration is complete, you may claim up to five years of historical GRECs.

Eligibility

What Qualifies for Virginia GRECs

  • Exchange thermal energy from groundwater or a shallow ground source via an electric geothermal heat pump, using either a closed-loop pipe system or an open-loop system that returns water to the same aquifer or surface water source.
  • Meet or exceed current federal Energy Star product specification standards.
  • Replace or displace a less efficient space or water heating system (any fuel type).
  • Replace or displace a space cooling system that does not meet federal Energy Star standards.
  • Not feed electricity back to the grid at the heat-pump level.
  • Be located in Virginia. Registered through PJM GATS with an executed GEO affidavit (Class I, II, or III depending on rated capacity).
GREC Calculation Methodology

How GRECs Are Measured

GRECs are not created from metered electricity consumption. They are created from the renewable thermal energy the earth delivers to your building; that is, the portion of total heating and cooling output attributable to the ground loop, not to the compressor electricity.

One GREC = 1 MWh of ground-sourced thermal energy delivered to the building. The conversion factor is 3.412 mmBTU = 1 MWh.

The GATS Business Rules implement a three-tier system based on system tonnage, effective January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2030:

Class 1
0–50 Tons, Residential

Formula-based. Uses NOAA weather data (HDD/CDD), ASHRAE Manual J building load, and AHRI-certified equipment ratings. No physical thermal metering required.

Class 2
>50–≤284 Tons, Light Commercial

Hybrid. Revenue-quality electrical meter plus manufacturer COP lookup table keyed to entering fluid temperature (in 10°F increments, 32°F–80°F). Formula:

Renewable Capacity = ((COP × kWh) − kWh) ÷ 0.44
Class 3
>284 Tons, Large C&I

Revenue-quality thermal metering at ±0.5% accuracy at full load. No formula permitted. All major equipment must be supported by annotated product literature.

Class 1 Formula: Step-by-Step

This is Flett Exchange's calculation model, built to GATS Business Rules Rev. 5. Each input is auditable and sourced from verified third-party data.

Step 1 - Equivalent Full Load Hours (EFLH)
Heating_EFLH = HDD × 24 / (Indoor_Setpoint − Design_Heat_Temp)
  e.g. 4,013 × 24 / (68°F − 14°F) = 1,783 hrs/yr
Cooling_EFLH = CDD × 24 / (Design_Cool_Temp − Indoor_Setpoint)
  e.g. 1,291 × 24 / (93°F − 75°F) = 1,722 hrs/yr
Step 2 - Annual Thermal Energy Delivered (mmBTU)
Ann_Heating = Design_Heat_Load_BTUh × Heating_EFLH / 1,000,000
Ann_Cooling = Design_Cool_Load_BTUh × Cooling_EFLH / 1,000,000
Step 3 - Renewable (Ground-Source) Thermal Energy
Ren_Heat = Ann_Heating × (COP − 1) / COP
COP_Cooling = EER / 3.412
Ren_Cool = Ann_Cooling × (COP_Cooling − 1) / COP_Cooling
Total_Renewable = Ren_Heat + Ren_Cool
Step 4 - Convert to GRECs
GRECs/yr = Total_Renewable_mmBTU / 3.412
  (3.412 mmBTU = 1 MWh = 1 GREC)

HIGHER COP = MORE GRECS:
A system with a COP of 4.0 delivers four units of thermal energy for every one unit of electricity. The energy attributable to the GSHP = (COP - 1) /COP. This means that the renewable portion of this system's heating and cooling output is 75%. Equipment with higher efficiency will generate a greater amount of annual GRECs.

Worked Examples

Worked Examples: Three Virginia Sites

The following are illustrative calculations using Flett Exchange's proprietary VA GEO Class I model, built to GATS Business Rules Rev. 5. Weather data is from NOAA 1981–2010 Climate Normals (base 65°F, with project-specific design base temperatures applied per ASHRAE). Building loads are proportional to conditioned square footage. All inputs are auditable against third-party sources.

Example 1 - Richmond
4,200 sq ft · WaterFurnace 7 Series
COP 3.60 / EER 18.90
41.9GRECs / yr
Example 2 - Roanoke
3,200 sq ft · ClimateMaster Tranquility 30 TE
COP 5.00 / EER 29.60
32.4GRECs / yr
Example 3 - Norfolk
6,000 sq ft · WaterFurnace 5 Series 500A11
COP 4.80 / EER 28.00
63.3GRECs / yr
HDD (10-yr avg) 3,773 4,144 3,377
CDD (10-yr avg) 1,549 1,208 1,629
Heating EFLH 1,677 hrs/yr 1,842 hrs/yr 1,501 hrs/yr
Cooling EFLH 2,065 hrs/yr 1,611 hrs/yr 2,172 hrs/yr
Annual Heating Energy 92.1 mmBTU 77.0 mmBTU 117.7 mmBTU
Annual Cooling Energy 93.2 mmBTU 55.3 mmBTU 139.7 mmBTU
Renewable Thermal - Heating 66.5 mmBTU 61.6 mmBTU 93.2 mmBTU
Renewable Thermal - Cooling 76.3 mmBTU 48.9 mmBTU 122.6 mmBTU
Total Renewable Thermal 142.8 mmBTU 110.5 mmBTU 215.8 mmBTU
Annual GRECs Generated 41.9 MWh/yr 32.4 MWh/yr 63.3 MWh/yr

WANT YOUR NUMBERS?
Flett Exchange will run a free, non-binding GREC estimate for your specific installation - using your installer's Manual J, your AHRI certificate, and your NOAA weather station. Contact Calvin Flett: info@flettexchange.com · 201-209-0234

GATS Registration

GATS Registration Requirements

All Virginia geothermal generators register through PJM GATS via manual GEO affidavit. Once registered, you may claim up to five years of historical GRECs prior to the year of registration. Created RECs are usable for RPS compliance in the year of creation or within the subsequent five calendar years. GATS Certificate format: VA-XXXXX-GEO.

GATS Certificate Format
VA-XXXXX-GEO

Required Documents

Required Document Description
Schedule A Generator owner's consent form. Executed by installer or customer. Issued by Flett Exchange upon registration.
Paid Invoice / SOW Invoice or scope of work showing project address, system description, and proof of payment.
Manual J / Engineer Study Must show installed equipment and both heating and cooling envelope loads for the conditioned space.
AHRI Certificate Equipment Certificate of Product Rating showing the AHRI Certified Reference Number (not the model number).

Registration Steps

1
Contact Flett Exchange

Email or call to initiate. Provide your installer's contact information. We collect the technical documents on your behalf.

2
Sign Schedule A & Customer Affidavit

Executed by customer. Grants Flett Exchange authority to manage your GATS account and submit production reports.

3
GATS Application Submitted

Flett Exchange prepares and submits the GEO affidavit to PJM GATS, including Manual J, AHRI certificate, and weather data.

4
GRECs Minted Monthly

Upon GATS approval, GRECs are created monthly based on the formula methodology. We report and mint on your behalf.

5
Sale & Settlement

Flett Exchange trades your GRECs at best available market price. Payments 4–5 times per year. Settlement in 2–5 days. Commission: $2.50/GREC.

Sources: Virginia Acts of Assembly, 2026 Session, Chapter 734 (SB 252); PJM-EIS GATS Business Rules Rev. 5; Va. Code §§ 56-576, 56-585.5; ISO/AHRI Standard 13256-1; WaterFurnace 7 Series SC2700AN; WaterFurnace 5 Series BR2500AN; ClimateMaster RP909/RP1000; NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1981–2010; ASHRAE Handbook - Fundamentals; Flett Exchange VA GEO Class I GREC Calculator (proprietary, GATS Business Rules Rev. 5).

Trade with Flett Exchange

Sell Your Virginia GRECs Through Flett Exchange

Flett Exchange is the leading PJM REC aggregator and broker. We operate dedicated spot markets for Virginia SRECs, Virginia Distributed RECs, and Virginia GRECs. Two paths: managed service (REC Manager) or self-trade. No long-term contracts. No setup fees. Commission: $2.50/GREC sold.

  REC Manager - Full Service Self-Trade - DIY
PJM GATS Registration Handled for you Free account setup
Production Reporting Monthly; GREC minting Self-report
Trading We trade at best available price 24/7 live GREC order book
Commission $2.50 / GREC sold $2.50 / GREC sold
Application / Account Fee None None
Contract No long-term contract No long-term contract
Payments 4–5× per year · 2–5 day settlement 2–5 day settlement

Get Started with Flett Exchange

Start earning money from your geothermal energy production today. Our team will handle all the paperwork and reporting.

Register

Questions? Call us at +1 (201) 209-0234 or email us.