This is an opinion article about how Virginia solar owners should wait to sell their SRECs until 2027. I am an SREC trader that helps solar owners get set up for RECs, and one of the markets I've been particularly interested in is the Virginia SREC market.

New laws went into affect earlier this year, and as a Virginia SREC trader that manages a portfolio of residential and commercial solar across the state (over 23 MW total), I feel obligated to share my opinions and thoughts on how you can potentially earn more money by timing the sale of your VA SRECs.

FYI - most SREC brokers do not let you exercise discretion over timing of SREC sales. Flett Exchange MAY BE a cost effective and responsive option for any solar or geo owner on the PJM energy grid region right now because you can actually talk to a real person on the phone and get individualized help with your SREC sales. There are many different brokers so please do your own research before choosing one.

VA REC Market Summary:

Virginia Distributed SRECs settled at $34.50 on October 21, 2026 (Flett Exchange VA Distributed dashboard). That is 43.8% of the $78.82 penalty ceiling and up 55% from $22.25 in February. In April, Virginia raised the small-solar carve-out from 1% to 4.5% of Dominion's RPS requirement (LIS, HB 628). Prices have started to respond, but they are still well below where carve-out markets usually trade. Our call: $60 net per SREC by June 2027. If you do not need the cash today, hold your 2026 SRECs and revisit in 2027.

Current prices

Prices are from the Flett Exchange VA Distributed dashboard as of October 23, 2026. Live pricing is in the portal. Usable life comes from Va. Code 56-585.5 C 4: a REC counts in the year it was generated plus the five calendar years after.

NOTE: Your SRECs only trade in this market if your GATS certificate number ends in "D" (for example, VA-SUN-12345-SUN-I-D). That designation is for Virginia-sited solar of 1 MW or less (Flett Exchange). Without the "D", your credits trade as general Virginia RECs, which are at $17.00 for 2026 (Flett Exchange VA dashboard).

What changed in the Virginia RPS?

Governor Spanberger signed HB 628 (identical to SB 175) on April 13, 2026, and it took effect July 1 (LIS). It is the first major change to Virginia's solar carve-out since the Virginia Clean Economy Act in 2020.

• Huge Demand Increase: Dominion must meet 4.5% of its RPS requirement with Virginia solar, wind, or anaerobic digestion of 1 MW or less for 2026 through 2030, then 5% for 2031 through 2045 (Va. Code 56-585.5 C 2). It used to be 1%.

• 75% in-state rule moves to 2027: Starting with the 2027 compliance year, at least 75% of all RECs Dominion uses must come from Virginia resources (Va. Code 56-585.5 C 3).

• Residential PPA Structure substantially improved: this new law removed the 50 kW minimum for third-party PPAs under the pilot program (CEUR summary).

• RPS locked until 2033: The SCC must start a review by July 1, 2033. Only then can it move the carve-out up or down by up to one percentage point (LIS).

• Penalty ceiling: The shortfall payment for small in-state resources is $75 per MWh, rising 1% a year after 2021 (Va. Code 56-585.5 C 5). That works out to $78.82 for 2026 and $79.61 for 2027 (Flett Exchange).

Quantifying VA Demand

Under the old 1% rule, Dominion expected to need 168,977 distributed RECs for 2026 (Governor's SB 1040 veto statement). At 4.5%, the same requirement becomes about 760,000 SRECs for 2026. If sales hold flat and the RPS steps from 29% to 32%, 2027 lands near 840,000. These are our estimates. If Dominion cannot buy those credits, it pays the shortfall rate, about $60 million at the 2026 ceiling.

Dominion has already told the SCC that the REC market "can be illiquid," and that a utility may be "forced to pay deficiency payments" when it cannot buy enough at modeled prices (Sustainable Energy Advantage). Separately, Dominion expects to need about 17.3 million RECs of all types for the September 2026 to August 2027 rate year (Reisinger Gooch).

Under the old 1% rule, supply caught up with demand. The 2023 vintage traded at $48.33 in April 2023, fell to $27.50 by October 2023, and drifted to about $20 by January 2026 (Flett Exchange VA Distributed dashboard). HB 628 is the first change in that story. If you sold at $20 to $22 over the last two years, that was the market. It is not the market the law sets up for 2026 through 2030.

Flett Exchange VA Distributed SREC price prediction (06/2026): $60.00

We expect Virginia Distributed SRECs to trade at or above $60 net per SREC by June 2027. This is our market forecast, not a firm offer to buy at that price.

• Why $60: Graduated carve-outs in Maryland, New Jersey, and DC often trade 10% to 15% below the yearly penalty (Flett Exchange). Another Virginia aggregator puts mature, balanced markets at 65% to 85% of the ACP (RECmint). On a $78.82 ceiling, that range runs from about $51 to $71. $60 sits in the middle of it.

• Where we are: In May, with the 2026 SREC at $27.00, we said the new carve-out would push prices up (Flett Exchange market report). Since then the 2026 SREC has gone to $34.50, up 28%. From the June 2 low of $20.50, it is up 68% (Flett Exchange VA Distributed dashboard).

Why we think you should wait until 2027

1. Energy Companies are ACTIVELY HOSTING new SREC Auctions 2026 is the first 4.5% compliance year. Dominion's 2026 solicitation for unbundled RECs opened on October 1, 2026 (Dominion Energy).

2. Demand is consistently increasing. The 75% in-state rule starts, the RPS rises from 29% to 32%, and the ceiling goes to $79.61 (Va. Code 56-585.5).

3. Your 2026 SRECs do not expire soon. They count for compliance through 2031. Holding a few more months costs you nothing in eligibility. 5 year useful life allows for flexibility here.

4. The RPS is temporarily unchangeable. The SCC cannot review the percentage until a proceeding that starts by July 1, 2033.

What this looks like for a typical home: A 10 kW system makes about 12 SRECs a year. After our $2.50 fee, that is about $384 at today's $34.50. At our $60 net call, it is $720.