The New Jersey Office of Clean Energy reported that 35 Mw of solar was installed during the month of February. This brings the installed capacity of solar in New Jersey to over 1 Gigawatt! There are now 20,340 solar arrays in operation statewide.
The 35 Mw for February was higher than expected and almost double what the state needs to install on a monthly basis in order to stay in line with the Renewable Portfolio Standard requirements. The monthly install rates are watched closely because they determine the value of the Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs). It is estimated that monthly install rates need to be 15 to 17 Mw a month average to keep the market balanced.
Even though the installation rate in February was quite high, the average rate per month has been decreasing steadily. If this solar development trend continues for the next six months it will send a signal that the market is under control. One needs to keep in mind the timeframe of solar development. The 35 Mw of capacity that came on line this month represents decision making from a year to a year and a half ago. Also, some of the projects that are coming on line now are projects with fixed rate SREC contracts. Once this development pipeline runs its course the true rate of installations based on SRECs at the $100 level will be seen for the next year in the future. We should expect the average build rates to continue to decrease as the development pipeline starts to represent projects built with the current SREC prices.
As far as prices are concerned for this spring and summer we don’t expect the market to drop below $85. Every time the market has dropped below $100 the volume of selling decreases significantly. Since there is a large oversupply of SRECs compared to this year’s requirement we don’t expect prices to move much over the recent highs of $125. However, if compliance entities wait until this summer to procure their energy year 2013 SRECs that are due in the fall then there could be a short lived squeeze above $150. We only put a 10% chance of this happening.
After trading briefly over $120 the NJ 2013 vintage SREC prices are trading $105 to $110 right now. The electric distribution companies auctioned off a large block of SRECs on March 19,2013. The volumes and clearing prices are as follows:
538 NJ 2012 vintage SRECs sold for $110.15 each 57,287 NJ 2013 vintage SRECs sold for $112.01 each
As we have suggested in the past, sell your SRECs consistently during the year, especially during times of rising prices. More about Flett Exchange:
Flett Exchange is a leading environmental exchange and brokerage firm. Our online trading platform brings transparency, price discovery, and liquidity to Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SRECs). Our knowledgeable staff is also available to assist you in selling your SRECs for you. Over 4,400 active clients utilize Flett Exchange to negotiate the price, quantity, and details of SRECs through our brokers or on our online trading platform. Upon each SREC transaction Flett Exchange remits immediate payment to our sellers. Flett Exchange operates SREC markets in NJ, PA, DE, MD, OH, and DC supported by trained solar professionals with specialized knowledge and proven experience.
Flett Exchange also brokers bilateral long-term SREC contracts between qualified counterparties. Flett Exchange buyers and sellers can secure price, quantity, and terms of SREC contracts 1-5 years in duration. Our stringent vetting process ensures that quality solar projects are presented to the market in a skillful manner. Buyers and sellers utilize Flett Exchange for long-term SREC contracts gain direct access to large pools of SRECs, while mitigating risk and locking-in profits. Please visit www.flettexchange.com to learn more about our services. (201) 209-0234.
DISCLAIMER: This article contains forward looking statements. Actual market action could differ materially from those anticipated. Sellers of SRECs should do their own research. Actual SREC production may differ significantly from those estimates. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.